Sideways News

Sometimes a little mystery is good. But when it comes to deciding how we’ll save the planet, it’s downright terrifying. Yet with world leaders keeping us guessing as to whether they’ll even attend, and keeping their negotiating cards close their chests as they board their planes, trains and automobiles, the Copenhagen climate talks have become shrouded in the stuff.

Await with optimism or pessimism?
Combine this with the numerous opinions being bandied about – here are the key players, says The Guardian, tropical rainforests are the key, states the RSPB - and it can be hard to know whether it’s sensible to remain optimistic.

Leading environmentalist and writer Tony Juniper says it’s hard to judge. “I don’t think anyone can predict, with certainty, what the outcome of this will be,” he admits.

“However, you can make some educated guesses... one thing I think is likely to happen is that we won’t get the legally binding deal that’s needed to solve this problem. But what we hopefully will see is a lot of political progress and countries coming closer together, then laying the foundations for a further round of negotiations hopefully coming to a more specific agreement by the middle of 2010.”

Our track record
We may have to improve on our track record if we’re to even going achieve this. According to Asad Rehman, Senior International Climate Campaigner at Friends of the Earth, we haven't scored well when it comes to ticking tasks off our COP15 “to do” list.

Two years ago, he says, the Bali Action Plan - which mapped out the road to Copenhagen - outlined what progress needed to be made and set some key deadlines: “The biggest was what are the cuts that rich countries are going to make,” he explains. “There were meant to be aggregate numbers in March - ie. the global figure - then individual country numbers in June. Yet we’re getting to Copenhagen and we’ve still got the EU saying: ‘Well we’re the lead because we’re pledging 20... but we might pledge 30, it depends on what the deal is’...”

It's not all about economics
What we should have, he says, are firm numbers “and firm amounts of money being put on the table by rich countries, saying this is how much we’re going to give to developing countries to help them adapt to mitigate against climate change”.

Ideally, there would also have been a major shift in mindset, Rehman adds, with the issue no longer viewed in purely economic terms. “That’s how most rich countries are seeing climate talks, they’re sending their WTO negotiators, their key economic negotiators and they’re playing hardball. They’re playing hardball with the planet and with the lives of billions of people.”

At least the British have been fairly good during the last week, says Juniper, in terms of talking about money. “I think some other countries have been a bit less forthcoming. It’s not so much what they’re declaring; it’s what they’re not declaring and what their bottom lines are when it comes to the hard negotiations that will take place through the night at the end of the second week - what is their backstop position?”

What commitments are required?
Juniper feels that the coming together of certain countries is key. “It’s the obvious big players who are crucial to this, so it’s the United States and China and then the European Union and India, with Japan, Canada, Australia and others being important to the deal.”

But, he added, it’s important to remember the poor and most vulnerable countries, such as small Pacific island nations: “I don’t think they’d be particularly impressed by something which is going to effectively guarantee the end of their countries, which is what a weak deal would do.”

Caroline Lucas, MEP and leader of the Green Party, believes that for Copenhagen to be hailed as anything close to a success, we must see a commitment to tough binding targets, funding for climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, and “a real culture shift within governments to enable a massive clean energy revolution”.

A real opportunity for co-operation
But she also insists this is no time for pessimism. “Despite downplayed expectations, the Copenhagen summit is still a real opportunity for governments to unite against carbon pollution in a spirit of co-operation - and build the foundations of a new global deal to combat climate change.”

Indeed, even if it all goes bosoms-up and we leave the talks with little to celebrate, there’s still a healthy dollop of hope to hold onto, thanks to national-level action. “If you look back over the last 17 years, since the original framework convention was agreed, there’s been an enormous amount of progress in countries in bringing forward different policies,” says Juniper. “The UK Climate Change Act 2008 is a great example of really significant progress that didn’t rely on international negotiation first and foremost.”

Beyond Copenhagen
Juniper believes that plenty will happen irrespective of what Copenhagen delivers. “We should have that in mind and not get too depressed by what is likely to be an
insufficient agreement in terms of what the science is saying we have to do,” he says.

“We can, over the next months and years, hopefully see something more significant being cemented in the international realm, at the same time as countries press ahead. Another thing to bear in mind is the culture change which has and will continue to take place, which ultimately is going to change the politics quite fundamentally in the years ahead, as people become more aware of what the implications of this are.”

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